Premier League: The trends that lead to Premier League relegation…

Following on from our article on what it takes for a club to be crowned Premier League champions, it’s time to look at the other end of the table and analyse why some teams cannot survive the dreaded drop come May.

‘Second season syndrome’ is a common term that is used to describe a downturn in fortunes for a football club in its second season follow a league promotion and is used by many when discussing potential candidates for relegation.

Is this really something we should be considering, or is it a load of nonsense? Let’s find out…
 

“At least one newly-promoted teams have been relegated in seven of the last eight seasons.”

The English Premier League is arguably the most competitive leagues in Europe, and while getting there is a huge challenge, staying there is another ball game.

Clubs coming up from the Championship have to invest heavily in new players during the summer, potentially change aspects of their playing style and tactics, as well as being prepared to go without their winning mentality from last term.

Some cope better than others, however at least one newly-promoted team from the Championship have headed straight back down after just one season in the top flight in seven of the last eight champions.

Furthermore, six of the eight newly-promoted teams to get relegated within this period had been outside the Premier League for at least two seasons before winning promotion.
 

“Five of the last seven clubs to finish 17th in the previous season have gone on to be relegated.”

‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’ is usually a statement used for players who are performing under their expected level, but it unfortunately doesn’t apply to consistently struggling teams.

Many of the teams that narrowly avoiding the drop, fail to see a change in their fortunes, with five of the last seven Premier League clubs to finish 17th in the previous season having gone on to be relegated the following year, with four of the last six finishing at the foot of the table.

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“Eight of the last 12 relegated clubs had two or less consecutive Premier League campaigns prior to relegation”

Experience and establishing a club at the highest level in the Premier League is vital.

While ‘Second Season Syndrome’ has only condemned four sides from the last 24 relegated since 2009, a lack of Premier League maturity has led to relegation’s.

ConsecutiveSeasons

Eight of the last 12 relegated clubs in the Premier League had been on a streak of two or less campaigns prior to their doomed season.

However this doesn’t give a free pass to seasoned clubs, with 25% of relegated teams since 2009 having 10+ years of top flight football under their belts, which includes Aston Villa last season are playing non-Premier League football since it was formed back in 1992.
 

““Nine of the last 12 Premier League clubs to be relegated with 2+ top flight season streak failed to increase points and/or position in previous two campaigns.”

Nothing is more important than progression.

The aim of every club is usually to improve on their position and points tallies from their previous season to show progression and steps in the right direction.

However for the clubs that fail to meet these targets have tended to struggle, finding it difficult to get themselves back on track.

Nine of the last 12 clubs to be relegated from the Premier League, of those with at least two consecutive seasons in the top flight, have failed to register an increase in their league points and/or league position in the previous two campaigns.
 

““The Magical 40 points”

While we’ve looked into what increases chances of relegation from the club’s views, we haven’t yet looked at what the league itself demands.

As we get down to the business end of the season in early March, there is a lot of talk regarding “the magical 40 points”, which is of course a reference to the percieved number of points needed for a club to have a good chance of retaining top flight status for another year.

40 points has indeed been enough to achieve just that in 17 of the last 18 Premier League seasons, including the last 13 on the bounce, with 2002/03 the only season to require 43 points for safety, West Ham were the unlucky ones.

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Analysis

The final piece of the puzzle is too now apply the statistics and trends featured in previous seasons to clubs participating in the Premier League during the 2016/17 season.

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Red dashes do not apply to club.

With different trends affecting different clubs the comparison and analysis of relegation candidates isn’t straightforward.

However Middlesbrough covered all three trends that directly involved them, putting them in potential danger come May despite the transfer coups they have made during the summer.

Sunderland finished in the dreaded 17th spot last season, have lost manager Sam Allardyce and to date have made just one summer signing thus far.

While they did register a one point increase last season following the 2014/15 season, Sunderland have posted constantly low points tallies in the top flight since their promotion back in 2007, accumulating sub-40 point totals in six of their nine campaigns.

SunderlandPoints

Continuing, Swansea and West Brom were highlighted under minimal trends and with experienced managers and seasoned pros it looks unlikely they will be dragged into a relegation battle come the end of the season.

Elsewhere, Watford and Bournemouth will be slightly cautious of the ‘Second Season Syndrome’ curse, though both look to be spending well and have the quality in their ranks to remain in the Premier League for another season.

Two newly-promoted clubs remain in the shape of Hull and Burnley, and it’s hard to ignore the recent events at the KC Stadium.

Steve Bruce walked away from the club after four years in charge seemingly frustrated at the lack of funds for transfers ahead of the new season, leaving their squad very thin due to long term injuries to key players including Allan McGregor, Moses Odubajo, Alex Bruce and Michael Dawson.

The Tigers have four top flight campaigns to their name, all since 2009, accumulating between 30 and 37 points in each season, tallies that resulted in two relegations.

Steve Bruce walked away from the club after four years in charge seemingly frustrated at the lack of funds for transfers ahead of the new season, leaving their squad very thin due to long term injuries to key players including Allan McGregor, Moses Odubajo, Alex Bruce and Michael Dawson.

It could be a long hard season ahead for the majority of these clubs.

Hull, Middlesbrough and Sunderland to be relegated 2016/!7: 40/1 Bet365
 

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